Document Type

Honors Thesis

Publication Date

Spring 5-2018

Abstract

This project attempts to investigate the future of labor force participation in Maine using an econometric forecasting approach. Forecasting has become an increasingly popular form of statistical analysis which uses historical distributions to help estimate future distributions of econometric models. There exists extensive literature on forecasting employment, however the literature on forecasting labor force participation is relatively small. I adapt existing econometric models and make use of time series information on sociodemographic factors such as age and net migration in order to determine how Maine’s changing demographic structure is affecting its labor force and how these effects will carry on into the future.

This study incorporates two separate disciplines—economics and statistics. The knowledge from this study has implications for the state of Maine and to policy makers, as it investigates which demographic factors have the greatest effect on labor force participation in Maine, and which policy areas can be improved in order to retain labor force participation, and consequently encourage economic growth, in the long run.

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