Date of Award

Fall 12-16-2022

Level of Access Assigned by Author

Open-Access Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Civil Engineering (MSCE)

Department

Civil Engineering

Advisor

Eric Landis

Second Committee Member

Per Garder

Third Committee Member

Shaleen Jain

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant change in traffic operations and safety. For instance, various U.S. states reported an increase in the rate of fatal and severe injury crashes over this duration. In April and May 2020, the comprehensive stay-at-home orders were issued across the country, including in Maine. These orders resulted in drastic reductions in traffic volume,switching working policies of noticeable number of corporations and educational administrations like universities to the remote working, closure of many organizations during the lockdown period, and people avoidance to public places to suppress the possible exposure to the virus were among the most significant reasons that kept people in their houses. Additionally, there is anecdotal evidence that speed enforcement had been reduced during pandemic. Drivers responded to these changes by increasing their speed. More importantly, data show that speeding continues to occur, even one year after the onset of the pandemic. This study develops statistical models to quantify the impact of the pandemic on speeding in Maine. We developed models for three rural facility types (i.e., major collectors, minor arterials, and principal arterials (non-Interstates)) using a mixed effect Binomial regression model and short duration speed and traffic count data collected at continuous count stations in Maine. Our results show that the odds of speeding by more than 15 mph increased by 34% for rural major collectors, 32% for rural minor arterials, and 51% for rural principal arterials (non-Interstates) during the stay-at-home order in April and May of 2020 compared to the same months in 2019. In addition, the odds of speeding by more than 15 mph, in April and May of 2021, one year after the order, were still 27% higher on rural major collectors and 17% higher on rural principal arterials compared to the same months in 2019.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant change in traffic operations and safety. For instance, various U.S. states reported an increase in the rate of fatal and severe injury crashes over this duration. In April and May 2020, the comprehensive stay-at-home orders were issued across the country, including in Maine. These orders resulted in drastic reductions in traffic volume,switching working policies of noticeable number of corporations and educational administrations like universities to the remote working, closure of many organizations during the lockdown period, and people avoidance to public places to suppress the possible exposure to the virus were among the most significant reasons that kept people in their houses. Additionally, there is anecdotal evidence that speed enforcement had been reduced during pandemic. Drivers responded to these changes by increasing their speed. More importantly, data show that speeding continues to occur, even one year after the onset of the pandemic. This study develops statistical models to quantify the impact of the pandemic on speeding in Maine. We developed models for three rural facility types (i.e., major collectors, minor arterials, and principal arterials (non-Interstates)) using a mixed effect Binomial regression model and short duration speed and traffic count data collected at continuous count stations in Maine. Our results show that the odds of speeding by more than 15 mph increased by 34% for rural major collectors, 32% for rural minor arterials, and 51% for rural principal arterials (non-Interstates) during the stay-at-home order in April and May of 2020 compared to the same months in 2019. In addition, the odds of speeding by more than 15 mph, in April and May of 2021, one year after the order, were still 27% higher on rural major collectors and 17% higher on rural principal arterials compared to the same months in 2019.

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